African Football News
FEATURE: CAF Champions League Final: Ahly and Zamalek statistical comparison with Driblab
With Friday’s game looming, and anxiousness felt from all sides involved, the game is definitely one to look out for as it is the first time that the two Cairo giants face off in the CAF Champions League final.
We have partnered up with Driblab, a Madrid-based startup specialized in Football Big Data Consulting, to take a look at how players from both sides have been performing on their way to the final.
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In this article, we will be taking a look at players in key positions from both sides, possibly finding out who might produce those little moments that spark victory for their side with the power of statistics.
Goalkeepers: Mohamed Abougabal vs Mohamed El-Shennawy
Starting with the goalkeepers, Abougabal and El-Shennawy have both been essential in their team’s success by providing a solid base at the back, with both keepers having saved 84% and 85.29% of the shots they have faced respectively.
Both keepers have been performing at very high levels this season, with their performances finding them in the top tier of goalkeepers in each metric we have chosen to look at, but what is even more impressive is how dominant they can be in certain metrics.
El-Shennawy has only conceded a goal every 8.25 shots faced, which is a shot more than what Abougabal’s performances and around 3.5 shots more than the goalkeeper that comes after that. The Al Ahly stopper has excelled in dealing with shots from inside the box, with a save percentage of around 83.33%.
Mohamed Abougabal has been as close to perfect as one can be when it comes to facing shots from outside the box, saving 98.75% of the efforts he has faced from long range while also excelling in his success rate of balls past into the opposition’s half.
Defensive Midfielders: Tarek Hamed vs Amr El-Sulya
Defensive midfielders play a crucial role when it comes to team stability, they provide the extra cover needed when the team is attacking, but also allow the team to go forwards as soon as the ball is intercepted.
This season, both Tarek Hamed and Amr El-Sulya have played similar minutes in similar roles to one another, but a few key metrics make this a very interesting head-to-head to look-out for this Friday.
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Defensively both players tend to tackle around 3 times per 90 minutes played with similar success rates of 63.1% (Hamed) and 66.5% (El-Sulya). The difference defensively appears when we take a look at interceptions per 90, where Tarek Hamed excels with around 2.01 interceptions per 90 compared to El-Sulya’s 1.52.
In the attacking phase is where these two players find themselves very different: while both players attempt around 5 long balls per 90 with a similar rate of success, El-Sulya appears to create more threatening opportunities in the attack, creating 1.26 chances per 90 compared to Hamed’s 0.84, and almost doubling key passes provided to his team from open play. El-Sulya also appears to contribute more to his teams scoring with a scoring contribution of 0.33 per 90 to Hamed’s 0.09 per 90.
Attacking Midfielders: Achraf Bencharki vs Mohamed Magdy Afsha
Attacking midfielders are usually the players that create the spark in big games, with a brilliant pass or a bit of skill to beat their man and create the space that wins you the game, and on Friday, both teams have players with a brilliant set of skills who can definitely dictate how the game ends.
Both these players have been instrumental for their sides creatively. This season, Bencharki has been able to provide 11 assists out of his 52 key passes he has been able to provide his teammates compared to Afsha’s 12 assists out of 85 key passes, which indicates that Zamalek have been far more clinical than Al Ahly this season. Another metric which further cements Zamalek’s clinical finishing is that Bencharki’s teammates have scored 12 goals out of passes expected to only finish with around 7.5 goals while Afsha’s teammates scored 12 goals from an expected 11.5 expected assists.
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From open play both players seem to provide a similar xA (expected assists) with Afsha providing around 7.5xA to Bencharki’s 6.4.
The metric where a huge difference between both these players appears is xA from set-pieces, throughout the whole season Bencharki has only been able to provide an xA of 1.1 whereas Afsha quadruples that number with a 4.0xA.
Attackers: Mostafa Mohamed vs Marwan Mohsen
Center forwards are usually the players most relied on to score goals for the team and to create the difference for their teams in the most important of moments. In this position each team has very different players, Zamalek have Egypt’s next up and coming striker in Mostafa Mohamed, who at the age of 23 is already proving that he is a real threat, while Al Ahly have a seasoned veteran in Marwan Mohsen.
When it comes to scoring, these two players are surprisingly similar: their finishing and shooting percentage, non-penalty goals per 90, shots per 90, ball are almost identical with almost nothing between them. They tend to successfully dribble around opposition players at a similar rate while equally retaining the ball. It is worth noting the fact that Marwan Mohsen has played around half of the minutes Mostafa Mohamed has played this season.
The biggest difference appears in their creativity: per 90 minutes played, Marwan Mohsen almost doubles Mostafa Mohamed’s chances created, assists, and open play passes into the box while also intercepting the ball 1.89 times per 90 compared Mostafa Mohamed’s 1.04. This indicates that Marwan Mohsen is more likely to influence the game with other factors than scoring compared to Mostafa Mohamed.
Final Thoughts:
Overall even after a statistical breakdown of each team’s key players it remains very difficult to predict how this game will pan out. This will be a game of fine margins with moments of individual brilliance most likely deciding the game. One thing is for sure, this will be a very memorable CAF Champions League final.
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Big thank you to Driblab for providing us with all the data and visuals for this article (find out more about them at www.driblab.com).
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